August 21, 2004

If There’s No Civil War in Iraq, We Win

Many had predicted that there would be no possibility of peace between Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, and that this would doom our efforts at building a successful nation there.

No such civil war has yet occurred. And this is one of the times when it would be most likely, since leadership of the nation is more up-for-grabs now than it may ever be again.

The current action by Sadr and his followers is being dealt with decisively. It’s very meaningful that the Iraqi government is taking a leading role in putting down Sadr:

Iraq Issues Ultimatum as Militia Stays Put

NAJAF, Iraq Cleric Muqtada Sadr and his militia refused to budge from the Imam Ali Mosque here Thursday after the Iraqi government issued tough new demands on the conditions under which they would disarm and depart.

The ultimatum was delivered to Sadr not by the U.S., but by the new Iraqi government.

James Dunnigan has characterized Sadr’s actions as a civil war that is opposed by the vast majority of his countrymen (via Instapundit ):

The current hostilities are a very lopsided civil war, with over 90 percent of the population on one side. The Sunni Arabs fight on partly because they fear war crimes trials for atrocities committed when they served Saddam, and partly because they really believe that Iraq cant do without them. The foreign terrorists fight because of the non-Moslem foreigners, and later will fight because Iraq will be seen as not Islamic enough because of cooperation with infidels (non-Moslems).

The vast number of Iraqis opposing Sadr doom his movement to failure:

All of this makes Iraq a rather unique rebellion, guerilla operation, civil war, or whatever you want to call it. Comparisons to other guerilla wars will be difficult, because the size of the population supporting the guerillas has a direct bearing on the chances of the guerillas succeeding. In Iraq, the small portion of the population supporting guerilla operations indicates that the possibility of success is very low. But the fighting could go on for a while.

So the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds may surprise us, by seeking peace and prosperity rather than bloodshed. From Iraq the Model:

I was working in a village north of Basra a few weeks ago when news broke of the attack, apparently by Americans, on the Imam Ali shrine. I thought to myself: “That’s it. Tomorrow there will be an uprising that will involve all the southern ‘governates’, and I’ll be trapped here alone.” I couldn’t sleep that night, as I was preparing plan B and plan C to find my way back to Baghdad (I assumed the roads would be blocked when the uprising began). But the next morning kids were walking to school in the regular numbers I see every day, there were many cars in the street, and everything seemed normal. When I got to my clinic, I asked my assistant, Abu Hasan, a local man, about this strange peace. What did he think of the American attack? Abu looked shocked: “Dr Omar, this was a very naive try from Muqtada al-Sadr to drag us into his war. We all know that his fellow thieves are responsible for the attack, we know where he positioned his guns and we know where the Americans were. It can’t be anyone but Muqtada.” Here I got really confused. No uprising? No civil war? The Americans didn’t attack the shrine? Then I realised, because I’d spent several earlier months outside of Iraq, that I’d begun to believe the media.

-By Omar.

Given our military victory, the ever-growing Iraqi economy and infrastructure, and the democratic nature of the new government, it appears that the only outstanding question as to the success of the U.S. actions in freeing the Iraqi people to build a successful new nation, is this question of the possibility of such a civil war.

The absence of civil war in Iraq would equal unequivocal success for the U.S. in helping to build a free and democratic new nation.