July 17, 2005

Study: Foreign Terrorists in Iraq Were Not Previously Part of Al Qaeda

Studies done "by the Saudi Arabian government and an Israeli think tank" state that the majority of foreign terrorists killing civilians in Iraq were not previously part of Al Qaeda:

...interrogations of nearly 300 Saudis captured while trying to sneak into Iraq and case studies of more than three dozen others who blew themselves up in suicide attacks show that most were heeding the calls from clerics and activists to drive infidels out of Arab land, according to a study by Saudi investigator Nawaf Obaid, a US-trained analyst who was commissioned by the Saudi government and given access to Saudi officials and intelligence.

A separate Israeli analysis of 154 foreign fighters compiled by a leading terrorism researcher found that despite the presence of some senior Al Qaeda operatives who are organizing the volunteers, ''the vast majority of [non-Iraqi] Arabs killed in Iraq have never taken part in any terrorist activity prior to their arrival in Iraq."

Some therefore argue that:

The studies, which together constitute the most detailed picture available of foreign fighters, cast serious doubt on President Bush's claim that those responsible for some of the worst violence are terrorists who seized on the opportunity to make Iraq the ''central front" in a battle against the United States.

The key error in this argument is the hidden assumption that only those who had previously engaged in terrorist actions were the ones we were battling. As if the clerics and activists who recruit them were not the leaders of the terrorists! As if we were not permitted to fight new recruits the terrorists could bring into service!

This relates to a point I've been talking about a lot: that the enemy is not merely the point men who actually blow themselves up, but the larger society that literally gives birth to them, in every sense of the word. Such societies can always raise more kids to blow themselves up. We must show them that that strategy is not going to work for them.

(Hat Tip to A.)

The Majority of Terrorists Blowing Themselves Up in Iraq are Foreigners

Just what I've been waiting for: a study of where the Iraqi terrorists are coming from.  I've been very curious about this. How many are coming from other countries? How many are coming from inside Iraq?

Foreign militants make up only a small percentage of the insurgents fighting in Iraq, as little as 10 percent, according to US military and intelligence officials. The top general in Iraq said late last month that about 600 foreign fighters have been captured or killed by coalition forces since the Jan. 30 Iraqi elections. The wider insurgency, numbering in the tens of thousands, is believed to consist of former Iraqi soldiers, Saddam Hussein loyalists, and members of Iraq's Sunni Muslim minority.

But the impact of the foreign fighters has been enormous. They are blamed for the almost daily suicide attacks against US and Iraqi forces and have killed thousands of civilians, mostly members of Iraq's Shia Muslim majority. Their exploits have been responsible for much of the headline-grabbing carnage recently, contributing to the slide in American public support for the war.

I still want to find out how much support the foreign terrorists are getting from those who are native to Iraq. It seems likely that they are getting substantial support from the Iraqi native terrorists in terms of living space, instructions on how to access their civilian targets, etc.

(Hat Tip to A.)