September 27, 2005

A Potentially Flawed Study on the Effects of Religion on Society

From today's Times Online:

Societies worse off 'when they have God on their side'

RELIGIOUS belief can cause damage to a society, contributing towards high murder rates, abortion, sexual promiscuity and suicide, according to research published today.

According to the study, belief in and worship of God are not only unnecessary for a healthy society but may actually contribute to social problems.

The study counters the view of believers that religion is necessary to provide the moral and ethical foundations of a healthy society.

I found that to be a surprising conclusion. I was curious how they arrived at it.

[The study] compares the social peformance of relatively secular countries, such as Britain, with the US, where the majority believes in a creator rather than the theory of evolution.

...Gregory Paul, the author of the study and a social scientist, used data from the International Social Survey Programme, Gallup and other research bodies to reach his conclusions.

...The study concluded that the US was the world’s only prosperous democracy where murder rates were still high, and that the least devout nations were the least dysfunctional. 

...He said that the disparity was even greater when the US was compared with other countries, including France, Japan and the Scandinavian countries. These nations had been the most successful in reducing murder rates, early mortality, sexually transmitted diseases and abortion, he added.

The flaw in the study is that America is by far the most religious democracy in it -- for that matter, in the world -- so any differences between America and other nations would appear to correlate with religion. If they correlated per capita income, personal wealth, size of houses, number of cars, or anything else America has more of per capita, it would all appear to correlate with religion. They could just as easily have concluded, more of these things correlate with countries named, "America."   

Note that their opposition of a belief in God to a belief in evolution is a false opposition. Many people believe in both. Documentation is found in this Pew study.

Perhaps there is more to the study than is described in the Times Online article. Based on the article, the study appears to be deeply flawed. 

Tax Cuts Work: Government Forecasting Incorrectly Thought Tax Costs Would Reduce Tax Revenue

From an WSJ article by Newt Gingrich and Peter Ferrara (subscription required):

In February, for example, OMB projected a federal budget deficit of $427 billion for the current 2005 fiscal year (ending in October). A few months later, in July, OMB projected the deficit at $333 billion. The February projection was off by almost $100 billion, or 28%. This episode is not unique. In February 2004, OMB's projected deficit (for fiscal year 2004) was off by $109 billion.

CBO is no different. In March, CBO projected a deficit of $394 billion for the current fiscal year. Last month, its projected deficit was $331 billion. CBO's numbers changed by $63 billion in five months. The changes in these federal deficit projections resulted because OMB and CBO had projected massive losses from the 2003 Bush tax cuts. Those losses never happened. Thus, in February 2003, OMB projected federal revenues of $2.135 trillion for fiscal year 2005. That was before the Bush tax cuts. Now OMB projects that, with the tax cuts, federal revenues for 2005 will be $2.140 trillion -- slightly more than the revenues it projected before the tax cut.

OMB and CBO are not the only players in the scoring game. The Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) and the Treasury Department also estimate the revenue impacts of tax policy changes. Their projections have similar problems. Consider the 1997 tax changes, which primarily involved a cut of 28.6% in the capital gains tax rate. According to a recent report from the American Shareholders Association by Dan Clifton, JCT estimated that revenues would increase $7.8 billion from 1997 to 1999, but decline $28.8 billion over the next seven years. Instead, the actual increase in federal revenues from capital gains taxes from 1997 to 1999 was more than 10 times higher -- $84 billion. What about the projected losses later on? Capital gains revenues have now grown to double their levels of 1996, just before the tax cut.

Gingrich and Ferrara find a consistent bias in the projections:

The errors were not random. They were strongly and consistently biased against pro-market, pro-growth reforms, and they are the long-recognized results of outdated methodologies employed by federal scoring agencies. The end result is that such errors greatly hamper or prevent Congress from adopting policies that would maximize economic growth and personal prosperity.

Tax cuts have powered the economy.

Correction: Gilchrist Was not Welcomed by the GOP to the GOP State Convention

In this previous post, I stated:

Another highlight of the Convention for me was the chance to shake hands with Jim Gilchrist, founder of the Minuteman Project. Jim is running for Congress.

I was told that Jim, an Independent, had been nearby but was, of course, not part of the Republican Convention -- and then the Republicans invited him in. A great move by the California Republican Party.

I was told that, but it turns out not to be true. I received email from Gilchrist Campaign Manager Howie Morgan:

The GOP establishment did not want us there.  Just check out what was said by Campbell:

Gilchrist takes shot at Campbell

And the campaign rhetoric keeps on flying. Tuesday, American Independent Party congressional candidate Jim Gilchrist's campaign sent out a press release accusing [Republican state Sen. John] Campbell supporters of threatening to expel from the GOP any Republicans who help Gilchrist.

In the statement, Gilchrist said Republicans fear his candidacy because he's treating illegal immigration as a more serious problem.

Campbell dismissed the incident, which he said occurred when people staffing a Minuteman Project booth at the state GOP convention displayed a Gilchrist campaign sign. The convention was last weekend in Anaheim.

"At our events, you can advocate a position on a measure or an issue, but you can't advocate for a non-Republican [candidate] in the middle of a Republican convention," Campbell said.
He added that one of the convention staffers who said the sign had to come down is also working on his campaign.

The Republican Party would do a lot better by welcoming Gilchrist in a spirit of friendly competition. It would make everybody involved look good.

ACLU Seeks to Block Federal Government from Moving Faster in Katrina-Like Emergencies

GWB was harshly criticized for moving too slowly in responding to Katrina. People said he was incompetent or even malicious. As usual, the facts were not of interest to those making such allegations.  Today's news confirms reports that GWB was unable to move until permission to do so was received from the Louisiana state governor.

From the Washington Times:

President Bush yesterday sought to federalize hurricane-relief efforts, removing governors from the decision-making process.

"It wouldn't be necessary to get a request from the governor or take other action," White House press secretary Scott McClellan said yesterday.

"This would be," he added, "more of an automatic trigger."

Mr. McClellan was referring to a new, direct line of authority that would allow the president to place the Pentagon in charge of responding to natural disasters, terrorist attacks and outbreaks of disease.

"It may require change of law," Mr. Bush said yesterday. "It's very important for us as we look at the lessons of Katrina to think about other scenarios that might require a well-planned, significant federal response -- right off the bat -- to provide stability."

The irresponsible reaction from the ACLU: attack GWB for seeking to make a power grab.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) accused Mr. Bush of attempting a power grab in the wake of fierce criticism that he responded too slowly to Hurricane Katrina a month ago.

Note that the ACLU does not question GWB's statement that he was not permitted to respond to Katrina because the Lousiana governor wouldn't authorize him to do so. Their opposition to this move confirms that they accept that statement.

But the Libs will keep trying to tell you GWB didn't respond as fast as he should have. 

The article continues:

"Using the military in domestic law enforcement is generally a very bad idea," said Timothy Edgar, national security policy counsel for the ACLU. "I'm afraid that it will have unforeseen consequences for civil liberties." 

Isn't that something? People in danger of losing their lives evidently doesn't rise, in the eyes of the ACLU, to a threat to "civil liberties."

By taking this position, the ACLU makes itself a danger to the lives of Americans.