January 10, 2006

Morris: How to Deal with Illegal Immigration

Dick Morris has a fascinating article today on how to handle illegal immigration. He says there must be a fence, but there must also be a policy to welcome legal immigrants:

But it is in the realm of domestic politics that the GOP would pay the highest price for a purely nativist policy. Texas has now become a majority-minority state, joining California. Can its wholesale flip to the Democratic Party be far behind?

Not if the Republicans are seen as an anti-Hispanic party! Is the GOP really willing to make political war against the Latinos by rubbing their noses in a border fence when they now account for 14 percent of the population and will probably increase their share to 18 percent over the next 10 years?

The permanent political price the Republican Party would pay for this shortsightedness is reminiscent of the way it antagonized the African-American vote in the '60s. Remember that Dwight Eisenhower carried blacks in 1952 and 1956. John F. Kennedy only narrowly prevailed in the black community.

It was not until Barry Goldwater and Richard Nixon, pursuing the Southern strategy at all costs, drove blacks into the arms of the Democrats that their votes were irretrievably lost. Is the GOP, driven by the anger of its base, going to make Hispanics permanent Democrats?

By moving away from English-only policies and reaching out to Hispanics, Bush has closed the gap among Latino voters. Gore carried them by 30 points, but Kerry only won among them by 10. But the border backlash may be undoing all this good work.

The obvious answer is to couple a fence with a good guest-worker program, with a citizenship track predicated on good behavior. But if the Republican Party allows the House bill to become law � a fence with no guest-worker program � it will be antagonize the vital Latino vote and consign itself to permanent minority status.

Don't miss this article if you are interested in this subject.