January 22, 2006

Inside the Mind of President Ahmadinejad of Iran

There's "irrational" as in "crazy like a fox" and there's "irrational" as in "out of touch with reality." President Ahmadinejad of Iran has said a lot of things lately that have been difficult to explain. Let's have a look at them and consider what possible explanations there are for these statements.

He has stated that the Holocaust never happened, that Israel should be wiped off the map, that he considers Islam at war with the West, and that he believes that due to Iran's importance to the world supply of oil, the West won't dare to oppose Iran in any matter. We'll go through them and then add one more at the end of this post.

Statements:

• Israel should be wiped off the map.
• The Holocaust never happened.
• Due to Iran's importance to the world supply of oil, the West won't dare to oppose Iran in any matter.
  

Why they seem crazy: beyond the genocidal evil these statements advocate, it appears bizarre for Ahmadinejad to telegraph his intentions to his intended victims, including Israel, a nation that has the power to do tremendous damage to Ahmadinejad. These statements of Ahmadinejad have alarmed much of the world.

Possible explanations:

• Ahmadinejad does intend to destroy Israel, and is trying to build support for doing so. Victor Davis Hanson takes this view: see his article, "The not-so-mad mind of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad":

Ahmadinejad's task poses two small hurdles: getting the bomb and preparing the world for Israel's demise.

• Ahmadinejad doesn't intend to destroy Israel, because he knows Israel has nukes on subs and would nuke Iran (and Mecca and much of the rest of the Jihadist world) in return. However, he wants to convince the world that Iran is a world power by throwing his weight around -- he wants to intimidate the world with the threat of what he might do, like a schoolyard bully.
• Ahmadinejad is irrational.

Statement:  Islam is at War with the West.

Ahmadinejad has said this unambiguously: 

"The skirmishes in the occupied land are part of a war of destiny . . . a historic war between the oppressor [Christians] and the world of Islam," Ahmadinejad has announced.

This is the least irrational of all the statements discussed here. It is the basis of fundamentalist Islam that all non-Muslims should be forced to convert to Islam, or to become second-class citizens in Muslim lands. There is no reason to believe that Ahmadinejad doesn't intend to pursue exactly this goal.

Today's New Statement from Iran. This brings us to a new statement issued by the Iranian government today. Israel is hinting that they will use military force to eliminate Iran's nuclear capability.  The response today from Iran is the least rational of any statement discussed so far in this post: Iran says Israeli threats are a 'childish game':

Iran on Sunday said Israel would be making a "fatal mistake" should it resort to military action against Tehran's nuclear program and dismissed veiled threats from the Jewish state as a "childish game."

On Saturday, Israel repeated its stand on the issue, saying it would not accept a nuclear Iran under any circumstances and was preparing for the possible failure of diplomatic efforts.

While Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz stopped short of an outright threat of military action, he said Israel "must have the capability to defend itself...and this we are preparing."

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said Israel was only trying to add to Western pressure on Iran to give up its nuclear program.

"We consider Mofaz's comments a form of psychological warfare. Israel knows just how much of a fatal mistake it would be (to attack Iran)," Asefi told reporters. "This is just a childish game by Israel."

This statement from Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Asefi can only be considered, out of touch with reality. It is not reasonable to say that Israel would be "making a 'fatal mistake' should it resort to military action against Tehran's nuclear program" -- Iran's not going to nuke Israel in the absence of such a program. Any conventional war waged by Iran against Israel would have the U.S. supporting Israel in the way most favorable to U.S. interests. It would make it possible for the U.S. to bomb Iran at will, without obligating the U.S. to occupy and rebuild Iran. Calling the Israeli position "psychological warfare" sounds to me like Asefi is taking the Israelis very seriously. It belies his description of the Israeli position as "a childish game". These internal contradictions in Asefi's statement give me the impression that Asefi is alarmed at the direction things are going, and that he finds it hard to make sense out of the actions of Ahmadinejad.

Whatever else Israel's statements are, it is not rational to describe them as "a childish game." Commenter Olah Chadasha in a post on this site, anticipated such statements, and describes why they must be taken very seriously:

I believe that [Israel taking military action against Iran's nuclear program] will come down to not having a choice. I’m actually writing a paper on this very question right now. It won’t matter whether the threat to Israel is real or whether Iran’s threats are just propaganda. Israel will not and cannot let itself become a pawn in Iran’s game to be a super-power in the Middle East. Personally, I think that’s what it’s all about. Think about it this way. Would we have gone into Iraq, either in ‘91 or ‘03, so easily if we knew that they had nuclear weapons? I’m not talking about in the process of getting, I’m talking about having the stockpiles in their midst. Biological and chemical weapons are one thing, but if Israel had not taken out Iraq’s reactor in ‘81, how different would the world picture be today? Same goes for Iran. If we allow them to acquire nuclear weapons, the world will definitely think twice and hundred times before even thinking about the possibility of maybe attempting to attack Iran for being a terrorist country. On top of that, Iran will be able to use Israel as a hostage to stop the world, especially the U.S., from messing with them and their policies. In the Gulf War, what did Israel had to with anything? Yet, who was attacked with scud missiles when Saddam wanted to threaten the U.S. with repercussions for interfering with their attack on Kuwait? Israel.

I believe Israel can’t allow itself to be put in that position again. Especially if Iran succeeds in getting nuclear weapons. There’s no gas mask or bomb shelter to protect you for those. So, to make an already long story shorter, I believe Israel won’t have a choice. Iran can’t be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Will the US support such a strike? That remains to be seen. I think the Bush administration definitely will and will breathe a huge sigh of relief that they didn’t have to do it. I think the liberals and European will condemn us as usual, then also breathe a huge sigh of relief that the tyrannical Israel did what they don’t have the guts to even think about.

This leads to a very interesting analysis. Why does the world want to stop Iran from getting nukes? So as to prevent Iran from being able to force other nations to do its bidding.  Ahmadinejad wants to convince the world that, due to his control over a significant part of the world's oil supply, that position of affairs has already been reached -- Iran can use its oil to blackmail the world right now -- the world is already unable (so Ahmadinejad wants us to believe) to prevent Iran from forcing other nations to do its bidding. In this way Ahmadinejad hopes to make the world give up its efforts to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

Is Ahmadinejad crazy enough to nuke Israel, given that Israel would use nukes on subs to destroy much of Iran, Mecca and other Jihadist targets in response? Either he is, or he wants us to think he is so as to be able to impose his will on non-Muslim countries.

In Summary:

Ahmadinejad is part of fundamentalist Islam's 13-centuries-old war of conquest targeting non-Muslims with the goal of imposing Islam on all the nations of the world.

Ahmadinejad wants nukes so as to destroy Israel as part of this war of conquest.

Ahmadinejad wants to make the world believe that, due to his ability to use oil to blackmail the world, Iran is already in a position of being able to dictate its will to non-Muslim countries.

Ahmadinejad's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi, believes Ahmadinejad may be overreaching, and finds it difficult to defend Ahmadinejad's actions in the face of the growing likelihood of a military response from Israel and possibly the U.S.

Conclusions:

Ahmadinejad is quite determined to dictate his will to non-Muslim countries and to use nuclear power to pursue his goal of imposing Islam on those countries.

Ahmadinejad must be prevented from obtaining nuclear weapons.