September 14, 2006

“War Lite” - and Hezbollah as a New Phenomenon in International Relations

Kissinger has a great analysis today of the geopolitics which can be seen in the actions of Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is, in fact, a metastasization of the al-Qaida pattern. It acts as an overt state within a state. It commands an army much stronger and far better equipped than Lebanon's on Lebanese soil, in defiance of two UN resolutions. Financed and trained by Iran, it fights wars with organized units against a major adversary. As a Shia party, it has ministers in the government of Lebanon who do not consider themselves bound by its decisions. A non-state entity on the soil of a state with all the attributes of a state and backed by the major regional power is a new phenomenon in international relations.

Since its creation, Hezbollah has been almost permanently at war. The first of three Hezbollah wars occurred when, in 1983, its attack on US barracks killed 241 Marines and convinced America to withdraw its peacekeeping forces from Beirut. The second was a campaign of harassment that induced Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000. The third was inaugurated this year with the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers inside Israel that led to the Israeli retaliatory attack.

We are witnessing a carefully conceived assault, not isolated terrorist attacks, on the international system of respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.

...The crisis in Lebanon is a classic case of that pattern. By the rules of the old international order, the war technically took place between two states - Lebanon and Israel - which, in fact, have very few conflicting interests. ...Yet by the existing international rules, the secretary of state was obliged to negotiate on the ceasefire with the Lebanese government, which controlled no forces in a position to implement it while the only forces capable of doing so have never formally accepted it.

...Everything returns to the challenge of Iran. It trains, finances, and equips Hezbollah, the state within a state in Lebanon. It finances and supports the Sadr militia, the state within a state in Iraq. It works on a nuclear weapons program, which would drive nuclear proliferation out of control and provide a safety net for the systematic destruction of at least the regional order. The challenge is now about world order more than about adjustments within an accepted framework.

Read the whole thing.

Hezbollah would be unthinkable if it were not for the current wish in the West of seeking to have tragedy-free war - "war lite," it might be called - in which as few civilians as possible are harmed - while, of course, those making war on the west seek a traditional tragedy-heavy war, in which as many civilians as possible are killed. If traditional war was waged on both sides, Hezbollah would have been decimated in the recent conflict with Israel, as would a larger number of civilians.

Kissinger advises:

A common Atlantic policy backed by moderate Arab states must become a top priority, no matter how pessimistic previous experience with such projects leaves one. The debate sparked by the Iraq war over American rashness versus European escapism is dwarfed by what the world now faces. Both sides of the Atlantic should put their best minds together on how to deal with the common danger of a wider war merging into a war of civilizations against the background of a nuclear armed Middle East. This cannot be done through ad hoc bargaining over Security Council resolutions; rather, the Security Council resolutions should emerge from an agreed strategy.

If Kissinger's approach isn't achieved, tragedy-heavy war is sure to follow.

The Terrorists Know That They’re in a War with America

There's no question that the terrorists believe that Islam is the enemy of America:

A British man accused of a fertiliser bomb plot has told an Old Bailey jury he was "happy" when he heard about the 11 September attacks on the US.

...When asked about his reaction to the attacks on the World Trade Center Khyam said: "I was happy. America was, and still is, the greatest enemy of Islam.

"They put up puppet regimes in Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt.

"I was happy that America had been hit because of what it represented against the Muslims, but obviously 3,000 people died so there were mixed feelings."

Islam is going to have to be reformed by Muslims who want to to have good, successful, productive lives.