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Fox News reports that the Iraqi Parliament has completed its work on preparing a draft Constitution. There was no official vote. It will now be sent to the Iraqi people for a referendum in October. The Sunnis are still objecting to it:
The document, which included last-minute changes aimed at easing Sunni concerns, was read to lawmakers but was not put to a vote in the assembly, where the Shiite-Kurdish bloc has an overwhelming majority.
"The constitution is left to our people to approve or reject it," said [President Jalal] Talabani, a Kurd. "I hope that our people will accept it despite some flaws."
Talabani acknowledged that the Sunni Arabs had objections to the draft "but everybody had reservations. This is part of democracy ... If the people do not approve it, we will draft another constitution."
Well said.
The Sunnis are rejecting violence:
[Top Sunni negotiator, Saleh al-Mutlaq] said earlier the Sunni negotiators would not sign off on the final draft because of objections to provisions that allegedly threaten Iraqi unity — particularly federalism — and fail to affirm the country's Arab identity. The draft refers to Iraq as an Islamic — but not Arab — country as the Sunnis demanded.
"I think if this constitution passes as it is, it will worsen everything in the country," he said.
At the same time, al-Mutlaq urged all Iraqis to refrain from violence.
Another top Sunni negotiator, Mohammed Abed-Rabbou, said the Sunni team refused to endorse the draft because "points of disagreement" were not amended, including proposals to transform Iraq into a federated country and references to Saddam's party.
No doubt the reason there was no official vote on the draft by Parliament, was specifically so there would be no vote against it by the Sunnis.
It appears to me that the likelihood is that the Sunni vote will not block passage of the Constitution in October. The rest of the country is on board; and in most circumstances, nobody likes to be a stick-in-the-mud.
For the Sunnis to block the Constitution specifically so as to preserve Saddam's Baathist party, and oppose federalism, would be evidence that the Sunnis want to continue the Baathist party and their previous position as the oppressors of their fellow Iraqis. This would be unacceptable to their fellow Iraqis, and would leave the Sunnis with no way to pursue those goals other than through civil war, which they, being so much in the minority, know they will lose.
Therefore, my guess is the Constitution will pass in October.
The counterargument is that the Sunnis will be self-defeating and will vote against the Constitution out of spite, with no purpose in mind of doing good for themselves or their country.
