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Iraqis will vote next week on whether to ratify the current draft of the constitution. The constitution is expected to be passed by the Shiites and Kurds, but it appears to be opposed by the Sunnis.
Many minority Sunnis, most of whom live in central and western Iraq, believe the constitution would create two powerful and wealthy regions that exclude them: one controlled by Kurds in the north and another by Shiites in the south.
The Sunnis opposing the constitution are seeking to impose their will on the rest of the nation by killing as many non-Sunnis as possible:
Sunni-led insurgents are seeking to undermine the vote with attacks that have killed 304 people the past two weeks.
This past week, U.S. forces correctly responded by initiating a series of military operations targeting Sunni insurgents:
The military said 50 insurgents were killed in the six-day Iron Fist offensive, launched Oct. 1 in towns near the Syrian border. The operation, which ended on Thursday, was the first in a series of major offensives in the past week in the heartland of the Sunni-led insurgency.
U.S. forces have swept through the area before — most recently in May. But militants have always returned, bringing in foreigners from Syria and planning attacks in other parts of the country. The military said they now plan to maintain a long-term presence there.
Iraqi-American Fawaz Saraf emails:
Since the fall of the regime, Iraqi Shiites have firmly rejected violence and peacefully embraced the political process hoping for a political structure that will preserve their rights as a minority within the larger Arab world. Denying Iraqi Shiites their rights simply to appease those who chose violence to achieve political goals or to appease misplaced Arab fears of an Iranian take over of a Shiite dominated southern Iraq is not only unfair but indeed is not in the best interest of our goal of spreading democracy and tolerance in the Arab world.
There was a move last week to change the election rules such that the Sunnis alone could not vote down the constitution. This seemed reasonable to me: by harboring those who killed non-Sunnis, the Sunnis have betrayed the public trust and given up their right to be included in a fair election. However, the change in the election rules was then reversed after criticism from the U.N.
It appears to me that one thing we're going to find out in the election is, whether the majority of Sunnis support the actions of the terrorists among them, or whether they are oppressed by and in fear of those terrorists. If the majority of Sunnis vote against the constitution, that would be evidence that they support the actions of Sunnis who kill thousands of non-Sunni Iraqis.
However, if the majority of Sunnis vote in favor of the constitution, that would be evidence that they have been too afraid of the terrorists to oust them.
Next week's vote in Iraq will have historic ramifications.
