August 28, 2006

What Israel Gained in the Israel-Hezbollah War

One thing Israel achieved in the recent war with Hezbollah was this:

Nasrallah also claimed that Hizbullah would not have kidnapped the two IDF soldiers had he known that Israel's response would be so intense.

"We did not think, even one percent, that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude. You ask me, if I had known on July 11...that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not," he said.

This is very important. Last February I posted about Victor Davis Hanson's appearance at the Wednesday Morning Club in Los Angeles, at which he discussed how a nation that wants to make war on another often tests the other to see if it is able to defend itself:

In 431 B.C., Sparta declared war on Athens. This should have been considered an unwageable war, because Sparta was a land power and Athens was a sea power -- there was no way for them to fight. The war was chronicled at the time by Thucydides, who believed that the stated reasons nations go to war are often not the true ones. Nations often go to war due to feelings of jealousy. In this case, Athens was the jewel of the time. People went to Athens for everything; no one went to Sparta.

Parallel to our time: Islamofascist talk about Iraq and Israel is irrelevant to their true reasons for killing Westerners.

Athens responded by choosing to withdraw all of its people within its walled city, and waiting for the Spartans to go away. But this didn't happen. The Spartans found that they could deny Athens the use of its own farmlands without repercussions. When Athens' allies saw this, they ceased to provide Athens with the supplies it needed.

Parallel to our time: when Al Qaeda saw that there were few or no repercussions to its attacks on the U.S. via the USS Cole, the first World Trade Center bombing, the killing of U.S. marines, etc., it saw the way clear to 9-11.

In this case Hezbollah invaded Israel, killed Israeli soldiers, and kidnapped other Israeli soldiers, believing Israel was unable to defend itself. It just learned otherwise. Israel's response has caused Nasrallah to say publicly that he would never invade Israel in such a way again.

This is not nearly enough of an achievement for Israel, in my opinion, given that it could have demolished Hezbollah, and given the possibility that everything the U.N. is doing will merely help Hezbollah.

But it is definitely a big win for Israel.

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Categories: Counter-Terrorism, The Mid East, The U.N.

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