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July 2007 Stats for The Big Picture.
Jeff Howe has a fascinating article in Wired magazine, “The Shadow Internet.” File piracy doesn’t start with casual consumers:
In reality, the number of files on the Net ripped from store-bought CDs, DVDs, and videogames is statistically negligible.
It doesn’t start with the peer-to-peer networks like Kazaa at all. They’re too slow:
...Even first-run movies get ripped. “Remember what happened to The Hulk?” he asks. On June 6, two weeks before its official release, a near-final version of The Hulk showed up online. To hear studio executives tell it, the bootleg went straight to the P2P networks and spread like a contagion.
“########,” says Forest. “Trying to distribute The Hulk through the P2Ps would take months, not hours.” That’s because files on the public file-sharing networks, where no single node is much more powerful than the next, spread at a glacial pace. Furthermore, when users connect to a P2P network – FastTrack, for example – they connect only to a small proportion of the number of other users connected at the same time.
Instead, it’s run by a hard-core subculture of people that are driven to obtain status as the best, fastest pirates, and to get credits that enable them to receive goods others have pirated. They put the files up on “topsites” where pirates with secret access codes grab them:
It’s all a big game and, to hear Frank and others talk about “the scene,” fantastic fun. Whoever transfers the most files to the most sites in the least amount of time wins. There are elaborate rules, with prizes in the offing and reputations at stake. Topsites like Anathema are at the apex. Once a file is posted to a topsite, it starts a rapid descent through wider and wider levels of an invisible network, multiplying exponentially along the way. At each step, more and more pirates pitch in to keep the avalanche tumbling downward. Finally, thousands, perhaps millions, of copies – all the progeny of that original file – spill into the public peer-to-peer networks: Kazaa, LimeWire, Morpheus. Without this duplication and distribution structure providing content, the P2P networks would run dry.
This may suggest a way to shut down file piracy:
This should be good news for law enforcement. Lop off the head (the topsites), and the body (the worldwide trade in unlicensed media) falls lifeless to the ground. Sounds easy, but what if you can’t find the head? As in any criminal conspiracy, it takes years of undercover work to get inside.
Copyright must be protected. It appears to me that eventually the government will probably track down and bust these topsites.
The same technology may eventually be used for legal purposes:
Forest believes the scene will eventually go legit, and he’s even started a company, called Jun Group, that uses the topsites to promote movies, musicians, and TV shows. “The topsites don’t care where their files come from, as long as no one else has them,” he says. Last summer Jun Group dropped a collection of live videos and MP3s from Steve Winwood on the topsites. “We got 2.9 million downloads,” says Forest, “and album sales took off.”
Read the whole thing.
This courageous and moving post is from the Iraqi blog, Iraq the Model:
Yes, we still celebrate the arrival of a new year
And we still exchange hugs and wishes
And we still dream of a better new year
Sorry, pessimists, we didn’t lose hope in Iraq yet
And we didn’t decide to surrender
The churches still ring their bells and the car bombs couldn’t stop my people from going there and hold their prayers
We just placed a block on the street
To stop the terrorists, not the visitors
A lady from New York asked me.
Do kids go to school in Iraq?
Yes ma’am; millions of them and every day
We still read and learn and we still hunger for knowledge
...We’ve placed signs of challenge in the streets instead of the New Year’s decorations;
“DON’T WORRY ABOUT IRAQ… WE ARE THE SONS OF IRAQ AND WE WILL PROTECT IT”
“I WILL VOTE FOR A BETTER TOMORROW FOR MY CHILDREN”
Read the whole thing.
From the December 30, 2004 issue of Rolling Stone, page 40 (no link):
With Ashlee Simpson offering the latest proof that reality TV can lift singers from nowhere to Number One, Missy Elliott, Blink-182 drummer Travis Barker and the surviving members of INXS are among a growing group of artists kicking off new series in 2005.
The reality gold rush marks a fundamental shift in labels’ promotion tactics, according to universal Music Group senior VP of marketing Kim Garner. “The [sales] driver before was the song, but now the driver is the personality, the celebrity,” says Garner, who’s attempting to break the U.K. pop-punk boy band Busted in the U.S. with an MTV2 series. “you feel invested in them,” adds MTV exec and Ashlee Simpson Show producer Lois Curren. “When your [TV] friend releases an album, you’re going to go get it.”
Got that? People used to buy CD’s for the songs, but the music business has decided that’s not what people are doing any more. Which is correct, of course, since with few exceptions (Missy Elliott, Eminem, etc.) most of the stuff released by the major labels doesn’t have the benefit of actually being fun to listen to. The industry would like to dispense with the annoying difficulty of having to produce a product that is actually good, since (like most businesses) that’s the hardest part of what they do. It would be so much easier if they could just find likable, charismatic people who look good on TV and wear clothes well, and get them to sing whatever tracks they happen to have around, and just sell that. It would take almost all the hard work out of it.
The only difficulty of course, is that this approach is killing the entire music industry. Yes, it’s hard work and takes tremendous talent to write and produce a good song. But without that, the music business is just selling the sizzle without the steak.
In an “Author’s Message” on page 569 of his current techno-thriller, State of Fear, Michael Chricton states (no link):
H. Sterling Burnett, a senior fellow at the National Center for Policy Analysis, endorses Crichton’s analysis:
...Crichton exposes serious problems the climate models that predict warming. The models don’t accurately portray past or current temperature reality, so why should their predictions about the future warming be trusted, much less used to inform public policy?
...I must admit, sitting in Dallas in December watching snow fall in the midst of below freezing temperatures—not typical Texas weather, even during the winter—it would be hard to take global warming alarmism seriously even had I not, after years of seriously studying and working on the issue, concluded that the disaster scenarios spun by environmentalists from human-caused global warming are more fiction than fact.
With the official count of the death toll from the Asian Tsunami currently at 120,000, and some estimates now climbing into the hundreds of thousands, this now appears to be one of the greatest natural disasters in world history.
Highest Death Toll From A Single Landslide
A single landslide of rock debris from Mt. Huascarn, Peru, killed over 18,000 people in the town of Yungay on May 31, 1970.
Highest Death Toll From A Volcanic Eruption
When the Tambora volcano in Sumbawa, Indonesia (then the Dutch East Indies) erupted from April 5-10, 1815, 92,000 people were killed.
Highest Death Toll From A Flood
An estimated 900,000 people were killed when the Huang He (Yellow River), Huayan Kou, China, burst its banks in October 1887.
Highest Death Toll From An Earthquake
An earthquake that struck the Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan Provinces of China on February 2, 1556, is believed to have killed approximately 830,000 people.
It looks like this is the worst tsunami disaster in world history, by a factor of almost four. The Guinness World Record Book cites what appears to have been the largest previous such event:
Highest Death Toll From A Tsunami
Following an earthquake off the coast of Sanriku, Japan, in 1896, approximately 27,000 people were drowned when a tsunami hit the coast. A wave that struck Shirahama had an amplitude of 38.2m (125ft).
Via Instapundit, information on donating to relief funds is here.
Powerline notes a Ralph Peters article on the great advances made by democracies in 2004:
Ralph Peters writes that 2004 was “a vintage year for democracy,” citing developments not only in Afghanistan and Ukraine, but in Australia, Mozambique and elsewhere, including our own Presidential election.
Democracy works. It doesn’t work all of the time, and it doesn’t work everywhere instantly. Sometimes the largest tribe wins and believes it has a mandate to oppress minorities. Sometimes the people choose the hater, not the man of hope. Sometimes the thugs get away with stealing the election.
But consider where this world of ours stood 50 years ago. Or 15 years ago. Or even in 2003. Democracy’s march is long, hard and painful. But humankind stepped forward in 2004.
To this list we can add Mexico as well. From today’s LA TIMES:
Mexico’s Economy Is Vrooming
North America’s hottest auto market is now south of the border, thanks to a stable peso, lots of young drivers and pent-up demand.
MEXICO CITY Dressed in a blazing pink jacket with purse to match, car shopper Erika Amador Martinez is the embodiment of Mexico’s auto market sizzling.
The lawyer from Puebla arrived at an auto show here this month to browse among dozens of models. Topping her list is a Ford EcoSport, a sport utility vehicle that she covets for its practicality, not to mention the kicky red paint job.
“I’ll pay part in cash and finance the rest,” said the 27-year-old, who is tired of cadging rides from her boyfriend. “It’s a lot easier to buy a car than it was a few years ago.”
Armed with credit and spoiled for choice, consumers like Amador have turned Mexico into North America’s hottest auto market. Although sales in the United States and Canada have stalled, Mexico is experiencing double-digit percentage increases in 2004, with buyers projected to purchase a record 1.05 million new vehicles by year’s end.
That’s more cars and trucks than will have been sold in Australia by the end of this year and in all but a few European countries. Some expect Mexico to overtake Canada in annual vehicle sales by the end of the decade.
The auto boom is indicative of a rebounding economy, lots of young drivers and years of pent-up demand. Banks scorched by Mexico’s mid-1990s peso crisis are back and lending billions of dollars to consumers, whose choices rival anything in U.S. showrooms. Lured by free trade agreements and Mexico’s sales potential, nearly 40 car brands are fighting for a piece of the market.
...the last decade has seen a retooling of Mexico’s economy. The 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement created hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs, attracted billions of dollars in foreign investment and turned Mexico into an exporting powerhouse.
Today the peso is sound. Inflation is relatively tame. The world’s fifth-largest oil producer is reaping a windfall from elevated crude prices. Although still dogged by high unemployment and entrenched poverty, Mexico nevertheless is enjoying a measure of economic stability it hasn’t seen in years.
And let’s note a corollary for Iraq. Democracy and capitalism are providing wealth and success for Mexican citizens and making that country a leading market for American products. In the same way, the success of Democracy in Iraq would enable that country to repay our investment in it, many times over, as it too becomes a wealthy trading partner.
It seems appropriate today to note the wonderful generosity of the millions of people, who make so much of today’s Internet possible. Who would have believed ten years ago, that such a wealth of resources would be put online by people without any immediate payment? These are people doing it for the fun of doing something they enjoy and for the appreciation by others of their good efforts. It’s not the least of the things we have to be proud of ourselves for.
Merry Christmas!
Ancient Romans Had Hotels with Central Heating. The ruins of an ancient Roman hotel were recent discovered underneath a German bus terminal. I found it fascinating that they had central heating:
After the big nosh, travelers would have had the option of staying for the night at the hotel, which was made of slate and bricked with narrow joints.
The foundation was raised to allow for a wood-fueled furnace at the bottom of the structure. Hot air from the fire would have risen naturally to fill chimneys located within the guest rooms. The hot air also warmed the walls, which were made of partially hollowed-out bricks.
Sauer said the complex was energy efficient, since the forests around Neuss already had been mostly depleted before the inn’s heyday. In addition to the underground heating system, a slate roof on the building captured the sun’s heat, somewhat comparable to how solar panels operate today.
Martin Haidinger, a Vienna University historian who has worked on similar projects in central Europe commented, “This gives us a fascinating insight into another chapter of Roman life, and confirms that some aspects of society were remarkably similar to our own.”
(via GeekPress. )
Here’s how to find out:
Want to know how big a print you can make before you start to lose sharpness compared to film? It’s simple and here’s the formula for general cases:
Long print dimension in inches = 4 x (square root of megapixels)
For example, for a four megapixel camera the square root of four is two. Two times four is eight. Thus the biggest print you can make without losing sharpness compared to film at normal viewing distances is is 6×8.” From a sixteen MP camera likewise you could go 12×16.” Of course you can print bigger, just you won’t have the sharpness of film. Also few people are able to get all the sharpness of which film is capable, making this harder to compare.
... Don’t worry too much about this, since sharpness is not as important in color as it is in B/W. I make 12×18” color prints all the time from 3 to 6 MP cameras and they look great, since I only print images that are good to begin with.
So, here’s a helpful table.
| Mega- pixels |
Long Dimension of Print in Inches |
| 3 | 6.93” |
| 4 | 8.00” |
| 5 | 8.94” |
| 6 | 9.80” |
| 7 | 10.58” |
| 8 | 11.31” |
| 9 | 12.00” |
| 10 | 12.65” |
| 11 | 13.27” |
| 12 | 13.86” |
This site is honored to have been nominated for best non-Council post in this week’s Watcher’s Council vote.
Last July, I noted that population shifts had increased the electoral votes of the red states:
The Blue States are Losing Citizens – Is it Because of Their Liberal Policies?
Overall, the states that voted for Gore [in 2000] have lost citizens, while those that voted for Bush have gained citizens. Due to reapportionment, this has cost blue states electoral votes.
Four years ago, Bush won 30 states and their 271 electoral votes one more than needed. Gore, who won the popular vote, claimed 20 states plus the District of Columbia for 267 electoral votes.
Since then, reapportionment added electoral votes to states with population gains and took them from states losing people. The result: Bushs states are now worth 278 electoral votes and Gores are worth just 260.
...Could this be proof that the liberal policies of those blue states have failedin that they are driving their citizens away?
And in the beautiful tradition of American democracy, driving them to red states, thereby increasing red state electoral votes?
Per Patrick Ruffini, this trend is continuing:
Given the Census Bureau’s tendency to play it safe with estimates, and the fact that we’re less than halfway until the next Census, expect to see more than a net swing of four votes to the red states in the electoral college. Twelve or more seems like the conservative estimate.
It may well be that the Liberal policies of the blue states are driving their own populations away.
Dick Morris: Putin’s Attempt to Steal the Ukraine Election Have Backfired. Dick Morris and Eileen McGann are consultants for Viktor Yushchenko’s campaign for the Presidency in Ukraine. They have a great inside view of what’s going on there. Today they write that Putin brazenly attempted to steal that election; and that the attempt has discredited him with the nearby nations he’d hoped to control:
PUTIN’S BIG BLUNDER
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s brazen scheme to rebuild the old Soviet Empire by annexing Ukraine has backfired. The backlash is brewing throughout the former Soviet republics that Russia calls its “near abroad.”
In trying to win the electoral contest in Ukraine for his pro-Russian puppet and then seeking to steal an election, Putin sacrificed valuable political capital and credibility in the region. That his allies in the KGB and the Russian Mafia likely sought to poison pro-Western candidate Viktor Yushchenko when they couldn’t defeat him just compounds the blunder.
The overreaching by this would-be czar is most reminiscent of the 1991 Moscow coup attempt by hardline communists. They sought to oust Mikhail Gorbachev and turn the clock back – but instead triggered the liberation of Russia, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the victory of Boris Yeltsin.
...Ukraine is proving – and other Eastern European nations will follow suit – that the former slaves of the Soviet Union can look to the economic life of Europe and the military protection of NATO to lead them to political and economic freedom.
People power is triumphing, and Putin can’t stand it.
A Canard Exposed: “Papers Don’t Print Good News Because Only Bad News Sells.” There’s an often-repeated contention that the reason the mainstream media fails to report the good news from Iraq is that only bad news sells. Just today I heard this repeated by a radio host. This is a canard.
On the front page of today’s LA TIMES, for example, the lead story is “Blast Kills 22 at U.S. Base.” However, the front page also has room for “Real Estate Hunters Go Old School,” and “School Yuletide Observances Shift Into Neutral.”
There’s plenty of space, day after day, to report all the good things that our troops are accomplishing in Iraq.
SOME COUNTY EMPLOYEES REFUSE TO CHANGE LA COUNTY SEAL. As reported here in a previous post, the ACLU is suing to force LA County to remove the cross from the County seal, where it has been for the last 47 years. The City Council caved immediately, but there’s a grassroots movement afoot to oppose the ACLU on this matter.
David Hernandez emails:
On Friday December 17th, the new LA County Seals were hung in the Public Meeting Room at 500 W. Temple St . in Los Angeles. The new Seal which cost 1,800 to make, consisted of placing a new face on the base of the old seal.
Today it was reported the cross on the original seal is shinning through the new cover! The San Gabriel Mission on the new seal now has a cross above it!
The story will be in tomorrows Los Angeles Daily News.
In a related story, also to appear tomorrow, County Employees are revolting and refusing to change seals. Some of the old Seals are now appearing on E-bay.
